{"id":12420,"date":"2020-04-07T00:48:32","date_gmt":"2020-04-07T00:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/?p=12420"},"modified":"2026-02-16T12:19:04","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T18:19:04","slug":"how-prepared-is-latin-america-to-do-battle-with-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/ghi-analysis\/how-prepared-is-latin-america-to-do-battle-with-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"How Prepared Is Latin America to Do Battle with Covid-19?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Between\nMarch 15th<\/sup> and March 20th<\/sup>, Peru, Ecuador\nand Argentina acted swiftly to implement a series of social distancing policies\nranging from curfew to quarantine, several days ahead of Chile and Colombia and\nclose to two weeks ahead of Mexico and Brazil, where policy making appears\nstill to be in disarray.  By now, most countries in the region have\nenacted some sort of policies designed to slow the spread of the virus, taking\nplaybooks from wealthy, industrialized countries in Asia, Europe and North\nAmerica where COVID-19 first struck. Unfortunately, Latin America has neither\nthe government infrastructure to decimate the virus as East Asians have done\nnor the fiscal resources of the US or Europe to survive a lengthy economic\nshutdown. Instead, Latin America is destined to muddle through, risking both\nhuman catastrophe and severe economic recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Demographics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If there is a bright spot in this otherwise gloomy\npicture, it is that Latin America\u2019s still youthful population may be less\nsusceptible to the dangerous side effects of COVID-19<\/strong><\/a>. Based on data\nemerging from Europe, we now know that the average age of the COVID deceased\nwas well over 75 years old, the majority of which had at least one of the\nfollowing chronic illnesses: diabetes, high blood pressure or heart disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Latin America<\/a> has\nroughly half the population over 65 years of age versus Europe and one-third\nthe proportion of elderly over 75 years of age. However, Latin Americans are\nnot healthy by global standards. High levels of obesity in Latin America have\nled to above-average levels of diabetes and heart disease. Based on\ndemographics alone, Latin America will fare better than Europe or the US in\nweathering the death count of COVID-19, even while LAC\u2019s underfunded healthcare\ninfrastructure will struggle to cope with COVID hospitalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Healthcare Infrastructure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Forecasting the spread and impact of COVID-19\nremains an inexact science, particularly in regions like Latin America where\nthe first cases emerged only a few weeks ago. But some predictability is\nforming around growth rates and social distancing actions taken by society at\nlarge. For Latin America, the healthcare crisis will soon be acutely felt in\nits Intensive Care Units (ICUs) where the most serious 2%) of cases are treated\nfor up to three weeks at a time. Chile, Brazil, and Mexico will suffer the most\nfrom their shortage of ICUs. In Colombia, where most cases are and may remain\nconcentrated in Bogot\u00e1, there will also be terrible shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By acting sooner than others, Peru and\nespecially Argentina should fare better in handling the surge in critical cases\nof COVID-19. However, nowhere in Latin America is equipped like European or\nEast Asian countries to absorb the shock to their health systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A useful\ncountry for Latin American health officials to study is Iran. Its per-capita\nincome levels match those of more affluent Latin American countries. Its health\nsystem is similarly equipped and its population is similarly structured and its\ndemographics mirror those of Latin America. Iran reached its 100th<\/sup> case three and a half weeks ahead of Brazil,\nthe first country in LAC to cross the foreboding threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Economic Impact<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Latin American governments face the same\nheartbreaking trade-off decisions as other countries around the world where the\nCOVID-19 virus has spread: sacrifice the lives of your population\u2019s most\nvulnerable or sacrifice your economy. Many OECD countries can delay or even\nmitigate such a trade-off by unleashing massive fiscal spending and monetary\npolicy easing (printing money). Latin America has much less latitude. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Latin American governments carry\nsmaller debt loads than the US, Europe or China, their borrowing costs are much\nhigher and international markets are wary of lending money in this environment.\nLatin American companies who try to raise capital in local equity markets tend\nto suffer greater share price devaluation as investors flee to US money\nmarkets, hurting not only equity pricing but also national F\/X levels. Latin\nAmerica\u2019s generally well managed Central Banks can only do so much to lower\ninterest rates, given the negative impact on their currencies, which drives up\nliving costs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With anywhere from 30-60% of working Latin\nAmericans employed informally, there is no legal or economic recourse for many\nif they are forced to stop working. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only country in Latin America with any\nfiscal slack is Chile, thanks to its copper-financed, rainy-day fund. But even\nif Chile were to spend the entire fund, it could only keep a stopped economy\nfinanced for a couple of months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lock-down policies do save lives but Latin\nAmerican governments simply cannot shut down their economies for more than four\nweeks without risking massive unemployment and the devastating consequences\nthat come with it, including soaring crime, malnutrition, and social unrest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The IMF, the World Bank, the IDB and other\nmultilateral lenders will provide support to Latin America but, with the\nexception of the IMF, those institutions may take weeks to release funds. Latin\nAmerican countries need fiscal assistance today to beef up their intensive care\ninfrastructure as well as provide fiscal relief to their economies and support\nfor national banking systems deprived of capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The countries best poised to help themselves\nboth fiscally and monetarily are Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico, followed by\nBrazil. Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina look particularly vulnerable right\nnow. Private lenders are loath to touch any of the three and multilaterals\nstruggle to obtain reliable data with which they can structure a loan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Social Resilience<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond testing Latin America\u2019s inadequate\nhealthcare infrastructure and fragile economies, of great concern is how its\ndivided societies will weather the economic storm ahead. Home to the world\u2019s\nmost unequal wealth distribution, Latin American societies have been kept\ntogether by a unique blend of faith, family support, populist and nativist\npolitics. But social unrest in 2019 revealed how tenuous is the thread holding\nmany Latin American societies together. With little or no social safety net,\nunemployment can quickly lead to society wide anger and desperation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Latin American and Caribbean nations count\namong them some of the most dangerous jurisdictions on earth. Many are\nconcerned that the region\u2019s already high levels of homicide and domestic\nviolence will grow worse in the face of widespread economic strife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Economic Rebound<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

How quickly Latin American economies can\nrebound from the crisis ahead will largely depend upon how quickly they can\nre-engage with the global economy. Without the ability to finance its own\ngrowth, Latin America will rely, as it always has, upon foreign capital and\ncustomers to pull itself out of recession. Exports, tourism, foreign direct\ninvestment and imported capital are the leading instruments of recovery. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most favored exports throughout and beyond\nthe crisis will be agri-food products whose demand will suffer the least. Latin\nAmerica produces 16% of world food exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is expected to be the first major\neconomy to recover from COVID-19 and has already announced ambitious\ninfrastructure plans to put its people back to work. Publicly funded\ninfrastructure may also gain favor as phase II fiscal stimulus in Europe and\nthe US (at the very least to beef up healthcare capacity). These efforts will\nboost demand for industrial metals, a leading source of export revenue for\nBrazil, Chile, Peru, Mexico. Gold prices have already begun to rise, and may\nprovide a needed boost in the midst of the crisis for Peru, Colombia, Guyana,\nDominican Republic, and Brazil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For manufacturer assemblers in Mexico, Central\nAmerica and parts of South America who rely upon imported components and key\nequipment, the trade and supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19 will take\nits toll. If a car is missing one or two vital parts, it cannot be shipped and\nthe factory comes to a halt. This is the dilemma facing assemblers across the\nglobe. Mexico is particularly vulnerable to supply-chain disruption, and the\nfact that many of the value-added products made there will suffer a drop in\ndemand during the crisis \u2013 car sales in China, for example, dropped over 80% in\nFebruary, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the most vulnerable will be economies that\nrely upon international tourism. Most countries have shut their borders to\ninternational travelers and will be reticent to open them quickly without\nadequate testing infrastructure to ensure that the virus is not re-introduced.\nFurthermore, tourists themselves will be gun shy about traveling abroad.\nAnalysts predict that it will take up to three years for international travel\nvolumes, particularly holiday travel, to resume to pre-epidemic levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Please contact us if you\u2019d like the latest numbers on the capacity of Latin American hospitals, their equipment counts including ventilators and more. <\/a>We\u2019re the only company in the world tracking hospital equipment figures for Latin America and our data was most recently verified in late 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our data can be useful for public health\nauthorities, hospitals, insurance companies and manufacturers of medical\nequipment and devices that serve Latin America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can get a sense of the depth of the\ndata we offer by reviewing our HospiRank report, our Analysis section, case\nstudies and 2019 whitepaper on 5 mega-trends in Latin American healthcare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A detailed look at how LatAm will endure COVID-19, factoring in not just healthcare but also economics, demographics and social structure<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12420","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-ghi-analysis"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12420"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12420\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29851,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12420\/revisions\/29851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalhealthintelligence.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}